"After offering a glimmer of 'less bad' hope in August (only down 1.1% YoY and up 0.4% sequentially), the Cass Freight Index shipments data in September disappointed, providing hindsight that August only gave us 'false hope.' September data is once again signaling that overall shipment volumes (and pricing) continued to be weak in most modes, with increased levels of volatility as all levels of the supply chain (manufacturing, wholesale, retail) continue to try and work down inventory levels."

Rails have seen persistent weakness, with overall volumes being negative 86 out of the last 87 weeks. Why do rail volumes continue to be weak? We see the strength of the U.S. Dollar driving fewer exports and less domestic manufacturing as the primary driver.

We continue to assert that the trucking industry provides one of the more reliable reads on the pulse of the domestic economy, as it gives us clues about the health of both the manufacturing and retail sectors. No matter how it is measured, the data coming out of the trucking industry has been both volatile and uninspiring.