Now, noting many of the same concerns that we've highlighted repeatedly, Morgan Stanley's auto team, led by Adam Jonas, has just issued a report detailing why they think used car prices could crash by up to 50% over the next 4-5 years. 

Here's the summary (flood of supply, poor lending standards and desperate OEMs who need to keep new car sales elevated at all costs):

Off-lease supply: This has already more than doubled since 2012 and is set to rise another 25% over the next 2 years.

Extended credit terms: Auto loans are at record lengths and lease assumptions (residuals, money factor) are at record levels of accommodation.

Rising rates: Starting from record low levels in auto loans.

Overdependency on auto ABS: The outstanding balance of auto securitizations has surpassed last cycle's peak.

Record high deep subprime participation: 32% of subprime auto ABS deals were deep subprime (weighted average FICO < 550) in 2016 vs. 5% in 2010.