I have been a leading proponent that self-driving vehicles, especially trucks, will be here sooner than most think. My estimate for long-haul trucks taking over is 2021-2022 or so. Widespread adoption of self-driving cars will be slower.
Many of my readers think that 2021-2022 is impossible. However, some recent studies claim I am far too pessimistic in my assessment.
For example, a California think tank proposes Fuel-powered cars 'will not be manufactured after 2024'.
Cars powered by fossil fuels will no longer be made after 2024 as self-driving electrical vehicles become vastly cheaper to use, according to a report by a Californian think tank.
The death of the internal combustion engine will be accelerated by a new model of car use in which fleets of self-driving vehicles are available for all to use, making car ownership uneconomic, the study said.
The report by Tony Seba, an economist at Stanford University, finds that forecasts of a slow move from fuel-powered vehicles to electric vehicles envisage drivers continuing to own cars. He argues that the introduction of driverless technology will be driven by companies such as Uber and DiDi, which will invest massively in creating a fleet of vehicles that are so cheap and convenient to use that car ownership will become a thing of the past.
Seba said the world is on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. "By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles, 95 percent of US passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call 'transportas-a-service.'"
The report, co-authored by James Arbib, estimates that the costs at the moment of disruption when transport as a service is available will be:
Driving a paid-off fuel car: 34 cents per mile
Buying a new fuel car: 65 cents per mile
Buying a new electric vehicle: 62 cents per mile
Using transport as a service: 16 cents per mile
Death Spiral for Cars
Renew Economy says Death spiral for cars. By 2030, you probably won't own one. The source of this article is also Tony Seba.
By 2030, you probably won't own a car, but you may get a free trip with your morning coffee. Transport-As-A-Service will use only electric vehicles and will upend two trillion-dollar industries. It's the death spiral for cars.