"If you note in the chart above, a short-term 'warning signal' has been triggered which suggests that if rates remain above 3%, stocks are going to continue to struggle. The last time this occurred was in May when rates popped above 3%, stocks struggled and bonds outperformed."
We also updated the pathway analysis for the highest probability outcomes over the next couple of months.
Chart updated through Friday – pathways remain unchanged
While the majority of the pathway's accounted for a continued corrective, consolidation, process through the end of the year. It was Pathway #3 which came to fruition.
"Pathway #3: The issue of rising interest combines with a break in the economic data, or another credit-related event, and sends the market heading back to test supports at 2800 and 2750. This would likely coincide with a more severe contraction in the economic data which is not an immediate threat. Nonetheless, we should always consider the risk of an unexpected, exogenous, event. (10%)"