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JPM Cuts Q2 GDP To -14%: "The Lamps Are Going Out All Across The Economy"
• https://www.zerohedge.com by Tyler DurdenSo it is rather poetic that JP Morgan the bank is there to watch as they are shut down.
In a note published late on Wednesday by JPM's chief economist Michael Feroli, he writes that in Chair Powell's Sunday evening conference call he said there will be no Summary of Economic Projections because the forecast is "unknowable" and as Feroli notes, "we sympathize with this sentiment" because "In economic parlance, the current environment is one of pervasive "Knightian uncertainty"—that is, an unknown for which we cannot even quantify the odds of various outcomes."
While that description clearly applies to the present situation, the very process of producing a forecast still possesses some value, as it can highlight the key assumptions needed to break past this uncertainty according to Feroli. With this in mind, JPMorgan has slashed its forecast for real annualized GDP growth in Q1 to -4.0%, followed by an even weaker -14.0% in Q2, far, far worse than Goldman's -5%. However, just like Goldman, JPM too sees a V-shaped recovery in Q3, when it expects the economy to recover to 8.0% in Q3 followed by 4.0% growth in Q4. For the full year (Q4/Q4) JPM now look for growth of -1.5%, a number which will be more of a Great Depression-like -10% if the second half rebound does not materialize.