On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.3 percent in January.  Not bad, so long as you didn't have to drive anywhere.  If you did, you may have noticed your dollars didn't get you as far.  The gasoline index increased 7.4 percent in January.

What's going on?

Over the last 10-months the price of oil has quietly recovered from an extreme negative in April of 2020 to over $58 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude.  And the UN Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index is at its highest level since July 2014.  The main factors contributing to its rise are increases in grain prices.

Our hunch is that consumer prices will rise much further and faster in 2021 than the bean counters at the Bureau of Labor Statistics anticipate.  In the interim, manufacturers of consumable products can mask price inflation by reducing product size, while keeping price the same.  The ruse of shrinkflation is not new to the marketplace.  However, when governments over issue their currency it becomes much more prevalent.