Russia is still insisting Ukraine surrender or be flattened: so far, it won't do and is being. Russian media calls Ukraine Nazi… as Russians wear the same color shirt with 'Z's emblazoned on them, wave flags and pump fists in unison, shouting "Za Russiu! Za Presidenta! Za Putina!" ("For Russia! For the president! For Putin!") They think they are fighting WW2. Which is ironic given The Economist points out Russia is being Stalinized. Ukrainians remain as defiant as they were in WW2 too.

The Russian people are now the poorest in Europe per capita (lower in dollar terms than Moldova): yet Putin says Western sanctions were going to be imposed anyway, and they will adapt. And adapt they are. As a mirror to the Western seizure of Russian yachts and mansions in Europe, foreign business assets of departing firms in Russia --which now include Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan - and when you've lost the "vampire squid"...-- will be auctioned off to Russian bidders, and if none emerge the state takes control. This looks like an equally corrupt reversal of the disastrous privatisations of the early 1990s. At the same time, 500 leased Western jets in use in Russia, which can no longer get insurance or service, are likely to be seized too, with compensation offered in roubles: don't expect Russia to ever get Western replacements. Russia is also proposing a ban of foreign ships at its ports as Russian ships cannot call at Western ports. As we argued in 'In Deep Ship', this shows how geopolitical supply chains and ocean carriers now are.

Crucially, Russia and Belarus have imposed a fertilizer ban. Even given the many different kinds of fertilizer and different prices in different geographies, this will have yet more inflationary consequences for global food prices. Putin knows this; he knows the industry is prepared to buy fertilizer regardless of what he does to Ukraine; and he blocked it anyway, even warning food prices would go up as a result.