2s30s has now inverted...

2s10s is the most inverted since 2000...

STIRs are inferring a greater than 66% chance of a 100bps hike in July (and September almost a lock for a further 75bps hike)...

While rate-hike expectations for 2022 are rising, the subsequent rate-cut expectations - as The Fed bails us out of a deep recession - are soaring too (with over 100bps of cuts now priced in beginning in Feb 2023)...

And Q1 is pricing in a full rate-cut...

Overall, the market is now pricing in a more aggressive hiking cycle than The Fed's Dots in 2022, and then a dramatically more dovish Fed in 2023 and 2024...

The bond market was very volatile today with a big spike in yields at the CPI print which rapidly rolled over, leaving only the 2Y yield higher on the day (+9bps) and the long-end drastically lower at the long-end (30Y -9bps, down 14bps from the highs)