Remember back in 2021 when inflation was "transitory" and surging consumer prices were blamed on the supply chain crisis? The Fed and macro investors became intensely interested in chaos at the ports. The focus on bottlenecks spurred the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to create a new barometer called the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) in January.

The implication was that if supply chain pressure reduced, inflation would ease. It hasn't worked out that way.

The GSCPI (data here), which roughly tracked inflation trends in 2021, has fallen sharply in 2022. The monthly measure has plunged 66% from its peak, from 4.31 standard deviations above average in December to 1.47 standard deviations above average in August.

The monthly U.S. inflation measure (headline Consumer Price Index) has gone in the opposite direction over the same period, up 17%, from 7.04% (year-over-year increase) in December to 8.26% last month.