Data for the above chart courtesy of CME FedWatch.

Question of the Day

When has the Fed gotten much of anything correct? 

The Fed strived for years to produce inflation with absurd QE policies. When the Fed finally got inflation, every Fed member plus Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said inflation was transitory.

The market never believed in the Fed's "higher for longer" message until just before banks started blowing up globally. Then things stunningly reversed as the lead chart shows.

Bond market volatility has been the most on record.

ECB Hikes Interest Rate by 0.50 Percent: "Inflation is Expected to Remain too High too Long"

On March 16, ECB Hikes Interest Rate by 0.50 Percent: "Inflation is Expected to Remain too High too Long"

I have no idea if the Fed still believes that or not. No one else does either.

But why does it matter? The Fed has no idea what it's doing, it's dot plot track record provides endless amusement. 

Besides, even if the Fed does believe that, it is highly susceptible of doing something else anyway.

By the way, the Fed wanted inflation and then some to make up for lack of past inflation.