
IPFS News Link • Transportation
6 Months for Tesla to Have Fully Ramped 4680 Battery Lines
• https://www.nextbigfuture.com, by Brian WangLimiting Factor says. -As per my analysis from the Q2 earnings call in the second image: It looks they're increasing the 4680 line speed in Texas by about 21% per month, and Jordan's guess of 20 million cells by October was spot on.?If the rest of my assumptions are correct, that equates to about a 5.13 GWh/yr run rate, which is about 20-30% more than a typical battery line…
This would also mean with 21% improvement per month then 3 months to double and about 6 months to reach 20-25 GWh/line. The lines at Austin are capable of 20-25GWh/line. This would be full ramped production so we can make multiple lines by copying equipment and proceses.
-5.13GWh is based on an assumption of 4.5 million cells per month at ~95 Wh/cell.
-95Wh/cell includes the 10% energy density increase Drew mentioned in the last earnings call.
-A ~5GWh run rate, or 4.5 million cells per month, is more than enough to ramp the Cybertruck…
-Depending on pack size, that could support a run rate of 25-50k Cybertrucks per year.
-At this point, it looks like Tesla probably has an excess of cells for the C/T ramp. Hopefully that means they can start ramping the Semi or start converting Model Y or Model 3 to the 4680.
Tesla just built their 20 millionth 4680 cell at Giga Texas!
— The Limiting Factor (@LimitingThe) October 11, 2023
What does that mean?
-As per my analysis from the Q2 earnings call in the image below: It looks they're increasing the 4680 line speed in Texas by about 21% per month, and my guess of 20 million cells by October was… https://t.co/YnM5Ncdy5P pic.twitter.com/uQXFuABEMC