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IPFS News Link • Fiat Currency

2024: The Year Of 'Fiat Alternatives'?

• Via 'Charts and Parts' Substack


The crowd loves their trading, their predictions, and their guesswork.  Although we at C&P are laser focused on a #riskfirst approach, we can stray into the guessing lane.

We are never afraid of being wrong; even the best traders are wrong 50% of the time.  Our #COTY (Call Of The Year) is: BITCOIN & GOLD.  AKA "fiat alternatives".  There are other cryptos and precious metals, but for simplicity's sake, we'll stick with the biggies.

We have compiled a top ten list of reasons why we favor fiat alternatives, but let's first set the table.  The seeds of inflation have been sown for decades, and 2021 and 2022 was when the inflation genie came out of the bottle.

Both bitcoin and gold underperformed in 2022, to say the least.  Where gold had a flat 2022, Bitcoin was down roughly 65% in 2022 and traded down almost 80% from the 2021 peak.  With the world off-sides and confused, 2023 was supposed to be a recession year.  We did witness the CPI fall from 9% (mid-2022) to 3%, yet the fiat alternatives surprised to the upside.  Mr. Market threw another curve ball. 

This is a good time to highlight a chart that shows a truer inflation picture.  As the CPI has fallen below 4%, Shadow Stats inflation rate has only pulled back to 12%.

KEY CONCEPT: Now we have inflation gauges turning up again and wage pressure at record levels.  CAN THE INFLATION GENIE BE TAMED, OR DOES IT TURN INTO A MONSTER?