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News Link • Inflation

Peter Schiff: 2% Inflation Is Fantasy Land

• https://www.zerohedge.com, Via SchiffGold.com

The two dive into gold's upward trajectory and its historical precedents, the market's misguided optimism when it comes to the American economy, and recent events in domestic politics and international banking.

Peter starts with his perennial reminder: public sector jobs do not boost the economy, and recent jobs numbers are intended to support a false narrative.

"Government jobs are not a sign of a strong economy. In fact, they weaken an economy because we have to pay for those jobs. They're non-productive jobs. They result in bigger deficits, higher inflation. That's really all we have– we have inflation that masquerades as growth."

One factor distinguishing today's economy from the past is that no monetary policymakers intend to hike rates in the long-term:

"Gold is on pace to have its biggest gains since 1979. And it's not a coincidence that gold is moving this much, especially when the Fed is starting to cut rates and just beginning this new easing cycle. In 1979, the Fed was still tightening. In fact, in 1980, that's when the Fed got rates to 20%. That's what really stopped the gold bull market. But this gold bull market is just getting started, because the Fed isn't anywhere near hiking rates. In fact, they're cutting rates."

Despite decades of artificially low interest rates and their resulting inflation, the market is too optimistic. The longer this goes on, the less plausible it is that the Fed can stay close to its inflation target:

"Every year, no matter how bad inflation was the prior year, the bond market is just assuming that it's going to be 2% for the next 30 years. At some point, the bond market is going to have to come to terms with reality that this 2% target is all fantasy land—the Fed isn't going to even come close to achieving that."


Zano