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News Link • Economic Theory

Not Investment Advice – For Educational Purposes Only

• https://www.lewrockwell.com, By Wayne Lusvardi

But Anthony discusses "potential" gains in value not "actual" historical rates of return or loss during hyperinflationary periods. Some more nuanced information on how differing investments have historically performed during hyperinflationary periods is necessary, with the caveat that we may end up with deflation.

Fortunately, in 2010 the global investment firm Alliance Bernstein conducted research as to how various investments performed during three hyperinflationary periods in the US, Britain and Japan. The research paper is titled Deflating Inflation: Redefining the Inflation-Resistant Portfolio. This study focused on investment performance during differing periods of gold-backed currency and debt-backed currency as we have had since the US dollar was untethered from being backed by gold reserves in 1972.

The Alliance study compared investment performance (loss or gain) with money inflation as a baseline. This is called a "Beta" score in investing parlance. The higher the Beta score, the greater the risk. A Beta score is reflexive or correlated in that it indicates how much loss or gain was realized for every 1% of inflation. This is in keeping with the investment principle "the greater the risk, the higher the expected rate of return" on an investment and vice versa.  The findings of the Alliance Bernstein report are summed up in words as follows:

"In the US, for example, for a given 1% increase in the inflation rate, 20-year nominal bonds fell 3.1 times as much. Stocks, too, tend to be vulnerable to most rising inflation environments: on average, the S&P 500 historically dropped 2.4 times the rise in inflation, and the broad equity indices of many other countries showed a similar sensitivity. This explains the dismal performance we saw in the traditional 60% stock/40% bond portfolio during the periods of accelerating inflation".  Conversely, productive farmland gained 1.7 times the inflation rate while commodities like gold, soybean or cattle futures gained 6.5 times the inflation rate. This is why mega billionaire oligarchs such as Bill Gates have invested in farmland in preparation for the Great Reset.