Last Friday's Michigan consumer survey was bipolar: 5-year ahead inflation expectations for Democrats leaped to 4.2% from 2.6% under President Biden, while for Republicans they plunged to 1.5%, from 3.4%. Who is right?

On Superbowl Sunday, President Trump ended production of US pennies, which now cost 2.8 cents to make. Just like that, a monetary norm was up ended. Trump also hinted at irregularities with some US Treasuries, so "maybe we have less debt that we thought." That was either a fumble or a play towards the possible repudiation of some Treasury holdings, which would up-end the norms of the entire global monetary system. Can you decisively say which?

Scientists are reporting a 2.2% chance of an asteroid striking Earth in 2032. Most people are dismissing this entirely or saying that's a low probability event: those who understand probability, and what an asteroid smacking into the planet did to the dinosaurs, are far more concerned.

As Elon Musk bids for OpenAI, a new paper finds leaning on one can "result in the deterioration of cognitive faculties that ought to be preserved," and "higher confidence in GenAI is associated with less critical thinking, while higher self-confidence is associated with more critical thinking." I'm shocked, shocked! And if you think we have lazy, first-order market takes out there now, wait until we get to that Michigan 5-year ahead mark.

Meanwhile, we now have 25% US tariffs on steel and aluminium, which could rise, hitting Canada hard, with immediate disruption to global supply chains. The US will be producing more, at higher cost, and imports into it will be more expensive, filtering downstream. There will also be a lot of steel and aluminium looking for a new home: which lucky countries will lose their remaining industries just as the national security argument for both is the strongest for half a century? Logically, that would imply lots of counter-protectionism. And inflation.  

We also got the hint of a potential US tariff carve-out for Australia after Trump talked to Australian PM Albanese. It's possible that's because Trump got confused between aluminum and aluminium; or Albo was the last person to talk (nicely) to him; or because of the AUKUS defence partnership – in which case, the geopolitics is clear, and it's good news for the UK, but bad news for Europe and NATO.