'Deal' – it's the key word in Donald Trump's vocabulary and he's built his career on striking them, but as he embarks on his second presidential term, he is about to face a challenge that will put his famed negotiation skills to the test. The Ukraine conflict, unlike trade deals or business arrangements, is deeply entrenched in geopolitical, military, and ideological complexities.

While Trump may initially push for a swift resolution — perhaps attempting to broker a ceasefire similar to his approach in the Middle East — he will soon realize that Ukraine is a far bigger challenge. The contradictions surrounding the conflict are not just regional but global, and a quick fix is unlikely. If Trump's efforts fail, how will the situation evolve? 

US-Western Europe: Conflict or Quiet Sabotage?

Trump's worldview is centered around the idea that the US is losing its global dominance. Since he cannot prevent this decline, his strategy appears to be one of disruption — seizing the initiative and reshaping alliances. He has long considered NATO an outdated burden, and his demand for members to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP is, for many European countries, entirely unrealistic. Currently, only four NATO members — Poland, the US, Greece, and the UK — spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense.

Should Trump manage to overcome internal opposition and reshape US foreign policy, NATO may become his next target. The transatlantic alliance underpins many global institutions, and dismantling NATO — or significantly weakening it — would be a logical step in dismantling globalization itself. Supporting opposition parties in Europe, particularly nationalist and right-wing movements that align with his worldview, is one way he could advance this agenda.

In response, Western European elites have two options: openly confront Trump, which could lead to a transatlantic crisis, or verbally agree to his demands while quietly sabotaging them. The latter scenario is more likely. While they may nod along with Trump's calls for increased defense spending and a tougher stance on China, in practice, European governments are unlikely to follow through. Under Trump's leadership, NATO could lose both its political influence and its aura of invincibility.

Trump's Ukraine Plan: Reality Check Incoming

Trump's team is eager to pressure Ukraine's Vladimir Zelensky into accepting a ceasefire. However, his vision for peace is simplistic and detached from reality. The war in Ukraine is not just a local conflict — it is a battleground for larger global struggles.