Four years later, world events make this prediction seem more prophetic than ever – but American statecraft seems not to have read the writing on the wall.

Today, America faces threats on multiple fronts – threats at least in part attributable to our own foreign policy failures.

In Europe, Russia's invasion of Ukraine marks the largest war of aggression on the continent since World War Two. Yet this was an avoidable war – or at least, it would have been, if the U.S. hadn't passed up opportunities to posture military forces, issued confusing diplomatic messages (like President Biden's "minor incursion" remark), or demonstrated a persistent reluctance to arm Ukraine.

Together, these failures signaled a green light for invasion and enabled a predictable years-long war of attrition.

This opened the door for further conflicts in other arenas.

While the U.S. and Western allies provided munitions and weapons to Ukraine at an unsustainable rate, attention and resources shifted away from Middle Eastern affairs – leading Iranian leaders to sense an opening. This opening was made possible by the Biden administration's sanctions relief in pursuit of an elusive Iranian nuclear deal, freeing more than $16 billion in Iranian assets.

Combined with a lack of response to attacks by Iranian proxies (of 83 attacks between January 2021 and March 2023, the U.S. responded to just four), the opportunity for Iran to attack could not have been clearer.

Iran seized the moment with both hands, supporting its proxy Hamas in its barbaric assault on Israel. Later, this attack expanded, with other Iranian proxies in Iraq, Syria, Hezbollah, and the Houthis all joining in.

This led to attacks in the Red Sea, which in turn further depleted critical stores of American munitions (which had already been drained by the conflict in Ukraine).

Meanwhile, China hasn't exactly been sitting still. It tested a fractional orbital bombardment system, quadrupling its ICBM forces (from 100 to 400 missiles), and rapidly expanding its modern navy (which currently has over 370 warships, far surpassing our 295 warships).