In our preview of today's Treasury borrowing estimate release, we said that we expect the Treasury to announce $507bn in Q2 borrowing, a "figure much higher than Treasury's estimate of $123bn in February" and entirely due to a lower starting cash balance, which as regular readers know, has collapsed due to the debt ceiling impasse that has forced the Treasury to draw down on its TGA (cash) balance as well as use various extraordinary measures.

We were off by a tiny $7 billion, $507BN vs $514BN as per the table below: