Following April's weak ADP print (lowest job additions since July 2024), analysts expected a rebound in May from the "unease" before Trump paused the Liberation Day tariffs. Jobless claims, among others, have all supported signals that the labor market refuses to fold to soft data's squeamishness over Trump's policies...

Source: Bloomberg

So, against expectations of a +114k print, ADP's Employment Report came in at just +37k for May - the lowest since March 2023's decline.