1 Tuned to the 75th and 25th percentile Monte Carlo outcomes, our bull and bear cases are ~$3.1 trillion and ~$1.7 trillion, respectively, as shown below.

Mach33 and ARK Invest have built a unified model that stress-tests thousands of ways SpaceX's next 15 years could play out. Rather than handing down a single forecast, the model lets us peek behind the veil of uncertainty and glimpse an entire probability landscape, complete with satellite internet blanketing Earth, fleets of Starships cycling to Mars, and armies of Optimus robots assembling a frontier city.

June 2025 SpaceX reports more than 6 million active connections across 140 countries – a customer base larger than many mid-tier terrestrial Internet Service Providers (ISP). In parts of rural North America and Europe it has become the the main alternative to slow Digital Subscriber Line (DSL); in cities such as Nairobi, Harare, Lagos, Lusaka, and dozens of smaller African hubs, receiver kits have sold out within days of arriving in-country, because there simply isn't a ground network to compete with it.

The base case trajectory implies bandwidth growing ~30× in five years to 20,000 Tbps and the on-orbit mass of Starlink satellites ~13 ×. Two hardware shifts enable that slope:

Version-3 Starlink Satellites. Each V3 bus is slated for ~10× the throughput of today's V2 Mini while costing fewer dollars and kilograms per bit to build and to launch. Note: we don't model a discrete jump to V3 busses due to uncertainties about mass and future satellite iterations. Instead, Wright's-law learning curves steadily ramp Gbps/kg according to historical datapoints, so performance converges on "V3-level" capacity, and beyond, over time rather than in one step.

Starship. A single Starship launch, expected to carry ~60 V3 satellites at ~1 Tbps each, would loft about 60 Tbps of fixed-satellite-service (FSS) capacity. One Starship ≈ 22 Falcon 9 launches in bandwidth terms.

The "Mars Launch Scaling" chart above captures that pivot in two synchronized sweeps of the same x-axis:

Falling marginal cost/kg (pink, left scale): The curve starts near $13k per kilo in 2025, when Starship is still effectively expendable. From there it glides downward as reuse cycles stack up. By the mid-2030s the cost per kilogram is well below four figures; by the 2040s it approaches the few-hundred-dollar range that makes bulk interplanetary cargo viable.

Rising Starship departures (blue spikes, right scale): Those spikes mark Mars–Earth transfer windows. In the base case the first trickle is a handful of ships in 2029. However, as free cash flow snowballs, each window opens wider climbing to roughly ~2,000 Starships by the ~2040 windows. Note that we are treating test flights to Mars as R&D, while the trips in the chart above are production-grade missions aimed at establishing infrastructure and capturing economic value on the planet.