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News Link • Business/ Commerce

A Good CPI Report in May Is Even Better than it Looks

• https://mishtalk.com, By Mish

Better than Expected and Reported

The BLS CPI Report was better than expected in May with the BLS reporting a rise of 0.1 percent vs the Bloomberg Econoday expectation of 0.2 percent.

Carried to a second decimal point, May was even better than reported.

For example, in April and May the BLS reported shelter at 0.3 percent. Carried to two decimal places, shelter fell from 0.33 percent to 0.25 percent, a drop of 0.08 which curiously the BLS would round to a drop of 0.1 percent.

Similarly , the CPI fell from 0.22 percent (reported at 0.2) to 0.08 percent (reported as 0.1) for a drop of 0.1 percent. Carried to a second decimal place, the change was 0.14 percentage points lower.

This presumes the BLS measurements are accurate, but that is what we have to go on.

CPI Month-Over-Month Details as Reported

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in April.

The index for shelter rose 0.3 percent in May and was the primary factor in the all items monthly increase. [Emphasis Mine]

The energy index declined 1.0 percent in May as the gasoline index fell over the month.

The index for food at home and the index for food away from home also rose 0.3 percent in May.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in May, following a 0.2-percent increase in April.

The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month, following a 0.5-percent increase in April. The index for hospital services increased 0.4 percent in May and the index for prescription drugs rose 0.6 percent. The physicians' services index fell 0.3 percent over the month.

The motor vehicle insurance index rose 0.7 percent in May, after rising 0.6 percent in April.

The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, new vehicles, and apparel were among the major indexes that decreased in May.


Reportage