The total size of the money supply still remains more than $5 trillion above its pre-covid total—an increase of 35 percent— but trends in delinquencies, employment, and home sales have put downward pressure on the money supply throughout much of 2025. 

As of July, year-over-year growth in the money supply was at 2.45 percent. That's down slightly from June's year-over-year increase of 2.49 percent. Money supply growth is also up compared to July of last year when year-over-year growth was -0.43 percent. The money supply has now increased, year over year, for twelve months in a row, following a very volatile period of immense growth in the money supply—i.e., during 2020 and 2021—followed by eighteen months of sizable declines in the money supply during 2023 and 2024. Since then, however, money supply trends have largely flattened. 

This trend has been especially true in the first half of 2025. Month over month, the money supply in July was up by 0.13 percent, rising only slightly from June's month-to-month growth rate -0.17 percent. During July of last year, the month-to-month growth rate was 0.17 percent. 

The total money supply has hovered around $19.3 trillion for the past three months, and is little changed from January of this year, rising 0.2 percent, or $39 billion since then.

This flattening of monetary growth likely reflects several trends we now see in the economy. For example, recent employment reports have shown that job growth has largely stalled, and July's revisions to employment totals suggest that employment trends are worse than was previously thought. Moreover, recent reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that delinquencies on student loans, auto loans, and credit cares are all at or above the levels they were during the Great Recession. Meanwhile, bankruptcies are up by more than 11 percent in 2025 compared to last year, and pending home sales continue to fall.

All of these trends are likely to have an effect on money supply growth. As Frank Shostak has explained, the money supply will often grow along with loan activity at commercial banks, and increases in loan activity requires an abundance of credit-worthy borrowers. As delinquencies and bankruptcies rise—a trend made worse by stagnating employment—the number of available borrowers falls. Fewer loans will then be made and the money supply will grow less swiftly. On the other end, a growing number of defaulting borrowers means previously lent dollars will "disappear" as these loans are never paid back, putting downward pressure on the overall money supply. As home-sale totals fall, this also tends to mean fewer newly lent dollars entering the economy.