The federal government officially shut down at 12:01 a.m. this morning, the first lapse in funding since 2019.

Roughly 750,000 federal workers are furloughed without pay, with "essential" employees forced to keep working - for now, without a paycheck. Active-duty military service members could soon see missed salaries if the impasse drags on, raising real-world stakes far beyond Capitol Hill.

How long will it last? According to Polymarket, most people think it will last two or more weeks. 

History suggests shutdowns rarely succeed. Republicans' 2013 gambit to undo Obamacare collapsed. Democrats' 2018 standoff over DACA died out. Even the drawn-out 2018-2019 shutdown under President Trump produced little more than frustration and missed paychecks.