Nvidia commits up to $100B in investments ($10B per gigawatt deployed, up to 10GW), starting with the first GW in H2 2026 on its Vera Rubin platform. This cash funds OpenAI's infrastructure. Each Gigawatt purchased by OpenAI would be about $30 billion worth of Nvidia chips. Nvidia would be selling at 60-75% margin. $10 billion would be only part of $15-20 billion of profits from each sale. The $10 billion would be purchased at the mid-2026 valuation for OpenAI.

Is buying shares in a customer company a ponzi scheme? Profits are still made by Nvidia. IF OpenAI failed there would be no domino effect on Nvidia.

The AMD deal is selling 6GW of chips to OpenAI. OpenAI pledges to deploy 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs (starting 1GW in H2 2026) which should be about $15-20 billion per gigawatt in AMD revenue. AMD. has about 38% margin. AMD issues warrants for up to 160M shares (~10% stake) at $0.01 each, vesting on AMD stock price targets (up to $600/share, ~3x current levels) and OpenAI's technical/commercial milestones. This would be about $38 billion of value today. AMD is refunding the profits from the OpenAI chip purchases in AMD stock.

Is a 30% discount a ponzi scheme?

If OpenAI fails with its data center that might impact future AMD sales. AMD gets a volume increase.

AMD and Nvidia are all still making money on these deals.

This creates a self-reinforcing loop: Nvidia's investment → OpenAI cash → AMD chip buys and deployments → AMD revenue/stock rise → OpenAI's stake value increases → Nvidia (via its OpenAI ownership) benefits → More Nvidia investments → Further AMD expansions (lagging ~6 months behind Nvidia). Both deals sync on H2 2026 timelines, with AMD's weaker financials (39.8% gross margin, 11.3% net margin vs. Nvidia's 72% gross).

Kevin projects an $800B revenue shortfall by 2030 ($1.2T expected vs. $2T needed for AI buildout). If the revenue was "only" $1.2 trillion over the next 4-5 years then it would still reach $2 trillion about 18-24 months later.

Kevin fears Fed bailouts, rate cuts, and AI-induced unemployment mirroring 1929's slow bleed.