Silver reflects that shift in real time more than other assets. It's price movement is being registered before policy formalizes changes already visible in physical flows.

Silver has been the most suppressed asset on earth, and it therefore has the most to gain. Below we explain what we believe is happening behind the price action and why it should continue for quite some time.

Executive Summary

Silver's recent price behavior is not the result of speculative enthusiasm or retail excess. It reflects a structural contest over natural resources in the Western Hemisphere, as the United States moves to displace China from Latin American supply chains. What appears as volatility is the market registering a geopolitical realignment already underway.

Silver is not moving because of speculation. It is moving because control over supply chains is changing.

I. China's Five-Year Offtake Strategy

For roughly the past five years, China has pursued a deliberate strategy of acquiring raw materials directly from source. In Latin America, this meant buying silver, precious metals, and base metals in concentrate or doré form directly from mines, bypassing traditional market channels.

By purchasing offtake before final production, China secured supply before price discovery. The metal never reached open exchanges, never faced transparent competition, and never reflected market-clearing prices. It was acquired upstream and quietly absorbed into China's processing systems

This strategy concentrated heavily in Latin America. Producers were offered higher prices for raw material and long-term certainty. Many accepted. Over time, visible supply chains thinned, while price signals became increasingly detached from physical availability.

During this period, the United States failed to respond. Supply chain control eroded gradually, not through collapse, but through neglect.

China was not buying silver at market prices. It was buying supply before markets ever saw it.