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News Link • Gold and Silver

Silver's $3 Trillion Stress Test

• https://www.linkedin.com, Douglas Robare

Yes, Warsh's Fed chair nomination made noise.
But the move itself was mechanical, not emotional.

The timeline matters:

Thursday: Silver hits ~$120/oz (all-time high)
Friday: Falls to ~$78/oz (-35% in 24 hours)
~$3 trillion wiped out across metals
Related equities crushed
Worst single-day move since 1980

That isn't how fundamentals reprice.
That's how leverage unwinds.
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WHAT ACTUALLY ACTIVATED THE MOVE

Several stress points in the system triggered simultaneously:
?? CME margin requirements raised, forcing leveraged positions to liquidate
?? Liquidity thinned as participation narrowed & some venues stepped back
?? Asian markets were closed, concentrating price discovery 
?? Highly crowded positioning met a sudden volatility shock

When margin rises into a leveraged market, price becomes a liquidation print, not a clearing level.
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WHAT DIDN'T CHANGE

The drivers behind silver's rally remained intact:
?? 5th consecutive year of an estimated 200M+ oz annual supply deficit
?? Industrial demand still rising (solar, EVs, AI infrastructure)
?? China's export controls on silver remain in force
?? Estimated paper-to-physical ratios north of 200:1
None of those moved on Friday.
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THE PATTERN IS STRUCTURAL, NOT PERSONAL

This isn't new:
?? 1980: Margin rule changes → forced liquidation → ~80% drawdown
?? 2011: Five margin hikes in two weeks → ~48% drawdown
?? 2025: Crowded trade + margin shock → ~35% drawdown

Different catalysts.
Same structure.
Same stress response.
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THE UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTH

Paper markets reprice leverage instantly.
Physical supply takes decades.


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