IPFS
Much Lower Arizona Voter Turnout Than Expected
Written by Ernest Hancock Subject: Voting and Elections(Still Voting? - Now who can say I didn't "win")
(Behind the scenes, information is coming out. And Plans being made to educate more and more)
John, et
al:
I am concerned about
some of the things you told me about the way in which Maricopa is conducting
their hand count.
(1) The law (ARS 16-602
C.1) says
The county political party chairman for each political
party that is entitled to continued representation on the state ballot or the
chairman's designee shall conduct the selection of the precincts to be hand
counted.
I think it is pretty
clear that the Libertarian Party is entitled to participate.
(2) The law (ARS 16-602
C.1) requires that precincts be selected from all the precincts in the
county:
At least two per cent of the precincts in that county,
or two precincts, whichever is greater, shall be selected at random from a pool
consisting of every precinct in that county.
(3) The law (ARS 16-602
C.2) then requires that races be selected from the precincts that were selected:
The races to be counted on the ballots from the
precincts that were selected pursuant to paragraph 1 of this subsection for each
primary and general election shall include up to five contested
races.
The sequence is clear.
The precincts must be selected first. Also, the SOS manual says to select
precincts and then to select races by category: i.e., you select the
Congressional race and then count whichever Congressional District appears in
the particular precinct. Selecting races first and then limiting the precincts
violates both the spirit and letter of the law, as well as the
manual.
(4) The law (16-602 C.1)
says
The selection of the precincts shall not begin until all
ballots voted in the precinct polling places have been delivered to the central
counting center. The unofficial vote totals from all precincts shall be made
public before selecting the precincts to be hand
counted.
The Maricopa Election
Director’s willful violation of the law after having had the specifics of the
law pointed out to her, and the party chairs’ participation in that crime after
the same warning, makes all of them guilty of a class six
felony:
16-1010. Refusal by election
officer to perform duty; violation of election law;
classification A person charged
with performance of any duty under any law relating to elections who knowingly
refuses to perform such duty, or who, in his official capacity, knowingly acts
in violation of any provision of such law, is guilty of a class 6 felony unless a different punishment for
such act or omission is prescribed by law.
I apologize for the
delay in sending you these comments and references to the law. Just after we
spoke on the phone, my Internet connection went down and just now came back
up.
M
From: John
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 3:16 PM
To: ??????
Subject: 15 out of 100 voters that went to Vote Tuesday had to vote a provisional ballot in Maricopa County.
Sent: Thursday, November 06, 2008 3:16 PM
To: ??????
Subject: 15 out of 100 voters that went to Vote Tuesday had to vote a provisional ballot in Maricopa County.
Bill,
Michael, Jim, Ed, Dan, Carol.
If the
number are correct from the article below 15 out of 100 voters that went to Vote
Tuesday had to vote a
provisional
ballot in Maricopa
County.
John
Brakey
|
Maricopa
Provisional is outrageous amount. 100,000 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Numbers From report dated Nov 5,
2008 12:41 AM |
|
|
|
Total Active
Voters / Turn out Election Night
% |
1,730,866 |
63.75% |
|
|
|
|
|
total precinct voting |
544,733 |
49.36% |
|
Vote by mail |
558,776 |
50.64% |
|
Total |
1,103,509 |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Mailed out Early ballots mailed |
828,000 |
|
|
Presidentail 90% should come back in
VBM. |
82,800 |
|
|
Already counted “Early Ballots” as
Nov 5 2008 |
558,776 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Brakey estimate what should come
VBM |
186,624 |
|
|
County estimates VBM
130,000 |
|
|
|
10
missing precincts |
6,000 |
|
|
Estimate of provisional to be
approved |
75,000 |
|
|
|
267,624 |
|
|
|
25,000 |
|
|
Still to be checked and counted
maybe more |
292,624 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
total precinct voting |
544,733 |
84.49% |
|
15 out ever 100
people had to vote a provisional ballot |
100,000 |
15.51% |
|
Totals |
644,733 |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
Brakey Project
Totals |
|
|
|
Total Active Voters Project final
Numbers by Nov 20th |
1,730,866 |
79.22% |
|
|
|
|
|
Vote By Mail
VBM |
745,400 |
54.36% |
|
Precincts |
625,733 |
45.64% |
|
Estimated total
voters |
1,371,133 |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
More than 230,000 ballots remain to
be counted, but voter turnout in Tuesday's election fell short of the record
participation that had been anticipated in Arizona.
As
of Wednesday evening, the Secretary of State's Office reported that 64 percent
of the state's roughly 3 million registered voters cast ballots in this
presidential election. That figure mirrored voter participation in Maricopa County, where 63.7 percent of 1.7 million
voters turned out at the polls.
Those numbers are expected to creep
up in the coming days as election officials process more than 200,000
provisional ballots and early ballots that arrived on Election Day.
But statewide turnout in this
year's presidential contest - featuring Arizona favorite son John McCain and Barack
Obama, the first Black nominee of a major political party - won't top the 80
percent turnout seen in 1980, when Ronald Reagan unseated incumbent Jimmy
Carter.
In
fact, it probably won't even best the participation seen in the previous
presidential race in 2004, when George W. Bush defeated John Kerry.
Turnout that year was 77
percent.
State and county election officials
had projected turnout to climb as high as 80 to 85 percent on Tuesday because of
the historic nature of the presidential race. But as a percentage, voter turnout
appeared to be down from 2004 in all counties except Santa Cruz and Navajo.
Election officials in Maricopa County, the state's largest by population,
said they still need to process about 230,000 ballots, with tabulation beginning
today.
Roughly 118,000 early ballots
arrived by mail or were dropped off at polling sites on Election Day; 12,000
came in earlier but also need to be counted.
Meanwhile, 100,000 provisional
ballots - those given to voters who don't show up on precinct voter rolls or
fail to produce proper identification - still need to be
verified.
Yavapai County officials said they were tabulating about 7,000
early ballots and 3,500 provisional ballots. But outstanding ballots from the
state's 13 other counties were not immediately
known.
Early and provisional ballots could
mean the difference in state and local races that are too close to call.
Democrat Sam George and Republican Bob Stump are still battling for the third
open seat on the Arizona Corporation Commission, while Jim Lane was leading
longtime incumbent Mary Manross by 592 votes for the Scottsdale mayor's
seat.
Proposition 101, the statewide
initiative on a health-care system, was failing by just 2,288
votes.
Nearly 3 million Arizonans were
registered for Tuesday's election, up 400,000 from 2004. But by the time all
ballots are counted, the number of voters who participated in this year's
election could rival the 2.1 million who cast votes four years ago.
"It
really depends on your point of view," said Deputy Secretary of State Kevin
Tyne. "Some would say, 'We are right on the edge of setting a record for the
number of Arizonans turning out to vote.' Others would say 'Oh, but there's a
lower turnout percentage.' "
Wes
Gullett, co-chair of McCain's Arizona
presidential campaign, said turnout may have been down this year because neither
McCain nor Obama engaged in expensive get-out-the-vote efforts in Arizona.
But
he added that Republicans here benefited from the "McCain effect," bucking the
Democratic tide that swept through the country. While the Arizona GOP lost one
congressional seat, it appeared to make gains in the Legislature and other
offices.
"Arizona was in a unique spot in terms of the
election," he said.
"If
John McCain had not been at the top of the ticket, it would have been a worse
day for Republicans in Arizona. I do think there was a McCain effect
in Arizona
that was very
positive."
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