Government information doesn't
measure what it's actually supposed to. The Consumer Price Index, for
example, is supposed to measure the rate of inflation. But it doesn't
include the two biggest consumer items, food and energy, in its
The unemployment rate, which everyone made a big deal about after
the December jobs report came out last Friday, is grossly miscalculated.
The rate dropped from 9.8% in November to "just" 9.4% in December. It
was the biggest monthly drop in unemployment since the dawn of
But the drop didn't happen because a bunch of folks found new jobs.
Rather, a bunch of folks fell off the unemployment check gravy train.
They used up their 99 weeks of benefits and were re-categorized. They're
now counted as "discouraged and no longer looking for work" rather than
Here's an idea... How about we just shoot all the unemployed folks?
We don't have to kill them, although that might be best from a
budgetary standpoint. But wounding them would be enough to get them
reclassified as "injured" or "disabled." We could get the unemployment
rate down to zero.
Government statistics are a farce. Yet the financial media is
obsessed with them, and traders sit on pins and needles awaiting their
After all the build-up and hype leading into last Friday's
employment report, the Dow Jones Industrial Average opened with a
10-point gain. That's a tiny, 0.08% move.
The same thing happened last month when the Dow moved seven points
on the morning of the employment report. We got a little more volatility
in November with a 20-point move. Still, that's hardly enough to
justify all the attention and anxiety leading up to the news.
Traders used to stand aside and avoid taking on new positions
before the release of a major government report. There was no need to
jump in front of a potentially volatile situation. But the biggest
reports don't create much volatility anymore. So there really isn't any
need to stand aside.
Perhaps Wall Street is finally putting government statistics in their proper place... third in line behind lies and damn lies.
Best regards and good trading,
Believe it or not, "every $0.01 increase in
gasoline prices extracts $600 million from U.S. consumer disposable
income." Could quantitative easing round three be on the way? Read more
here: The Fed is Guaranteeing Higher Oil Prices
"Studies show the average American adult packs on an extra four pounds
over the holiday season," Jeff says. So it's surprising that the New
Year can be the worst time for weight loss companies... and their
investors. Discover the best time to jump into weight loss stocks here: The 2011 Weight Loss Trade