Those who think manufacturing is going to lead the way to a sustainable recovery need to think again. Data suggest durable goods sales are about to collapse.
Let's tie this together starting with the Mortgage Application Weekly Survey (Emphasis Mine)
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today released its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending July 9, 2010. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. This week’s results include an adjustment to account for the Independence Day holiday. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 12.6 percent compared with the previous week.
The Refinance Index decreased 2.9 percent from the previous week and the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.1 percent from one week earlier. This was the lowest Purchase Index observed in the survey since December 1996. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12.7 percent compared with the previous week and was 43.0 percent lower than Independence Day week one year ago.
Consumers certainly will not be buying appliances (or carpeting, or landscaping, or nick-knacks) for the homes they are not buying either.
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