Please consider the severely delayed September Jobs Report originally scheduled for October 3.

Initial Thoughts

All year, I kept asking "Does anyone believe these reports?"

In July the BLS said oops. Employment in May and June was a combined 258,000 lower than previously reported (now revised lower again).

In August, the BLS said oops again. The BLS reported negative job growth for June.

The revision hit parade continues in September. July was revised down by 7,000, from +79,000 to +72,000, and the change for August was revised down by 26,000, from +22,000 to -4,000.

There is no reason to believe this report either. But let's discuss it anyway.

2025 Synopsis

Since January 2025, Employment (Household Survey) is -250,000.

Since January 2025, Nonfarm Payrolls (Establishment Survey) is +573,000.

Since January 2025, Fulltime Employment (Household Survey) is -743,000

Monthly Job Report Details

Nonfarm Payroll: +119,000 to 159,626,000 – Establishment Survey

Civilian Non-institutional Population: +225,000 to 274,226,000

Civilian Labor Force: 470,000 to 171,248,000 – Household Survey

Participation Rate: +0.1 to 62.4% – Household Survey

Employment:+251,000 to 163,645,000 – Household Survey

Unemployment: +219,000 to 7,603,000 – Household Survey

Baseline Unemployment Rate: +0.1 to 4.4% – Household Survey

Not in Labor Force: -245,000 to 102,978,000 – Household Survey

U-6 unemployment: +0.1 to 8.0% – Household Survey