We won't focus too much on the reasons why Deutsche Bank just cut its forecast for European 2012 GDP from +0.4% to -0.5%: needless to say it is yet another ploy to force the ECB's hand to print, and not even DB is ashamed to admit it: "The good news is that the worse the economic outlook becomes, the more likely it is the ECB will have to take more aggressive steps to deal with a compromised monetary transmission mechanism and the growing downside risks to price stability." So now that that is out of the way (and those who wish to read the whole thing can do so here), we can focus on what is actually relevant: the full event calendar from tomorrow until the end of the year, not only for sovereign bond issuance (there is plenty), but for all major sovereign events.
So for those who collect forward calendars of catalytic events, here is the definitive one through the end of the year to print and put up on the wall.
29 November: German Constitutional Court to rule on EFSF amendment law. Several weeks ago the Constitutional Court imposed a temporary injunction on Germany’s EFSF amendment law, overruling the government’s proposed 9-person parliamentary committee for taking rapid action decisions on EFSF deployment. If this ruling is upheld, the government will have to table an amendment and vote it through. We view this as technical only and do not anticipate problems. The 41-person parliamentary budget committees will make the decisions instead. This will be slightly less efficient.
29 November: Italy auction. Bonds.
29 November: Belgium auction. Bills.
29 November: Portuguese Budget. The final vote on the 2012 budget is due in parliament.
29-30 November: Eurogroup/ECOFIN Finance Ministers meetings. As of now, this is the last scheduled EU finance ministers meeting of 2011. On the formal agenda are bank capital requirements and the 9 December European Council meeting, specifically as regards economic policy.
December (tbd): New Greek loan programme to be approved. The 26 October statement from the European Council (heads of state) claimed the new loan programme would be approved by the end of the year and the bond exchange would take place at the beginning of 2012.
1 December: Draghi at European Parliament. ECB President Mario Draghi will present the 2010 ECB Annual Report to the European Parliament. This will be an opportunity to listen to the new ECB President’s views on the crisis, its resolution and the role the ECB can play.
1 December: Greek strike. The ADEDY and GSEE union bodies will hold the latest 24-hour strike against austerity measures.
1 December: Spain auction. Bonds.
1 December: France auction. Bonds.
2 December: Anglo-French summit. French President Sarkozy and British PM Cameron to hold annual summit meeting.
3 December: Greek budget. Discussion of 2012 Budget in parliament.