With shares in Romney costing $4.69 it means Romney has a 46.9% chance of winning. Back on November 14th shares in Romney cost $7.15 meaning he had a 71.5% chance of winning. In the last three weeks, Romney has gone from being an overwhelming favorite to no longer having a majority of support.
Along with Romney collapsing, so has Cain who dropped out of the race. Cain had a 9.5% chance of winning on October 15th, but now has only a 0.1% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Rick Perry was exposed as being the phony candidate from Texas. Perry's support has collapsed from 39.4% on September 3rd to only 2.1% today.
With Romney, Cain, and Perry collapsing, where has all of their support gone? Newt Gingrich's chances of winning have increased from a low of 0.8% on September 27th to 33.3% today. Ron Paul's chances of winning have increased from a low of 2.2% on November 8th to 7.4% today. Jon Huntsman's chances of winning have increased from a low of 2.1% on November 7th to 7% today.
Iowa is the first GOP caucus and widely recognized as the first step in becoming the Republican nominee. Intrade doesn't allow you to buy shares for the Iowa caucus, so we can only look at polling. A new PPP poll for the Iowa caucus just released on December 5th shows Gingrich in the lead with 27%, Paul in second with 18%, Romney in third with 16%, and Bachmann in fourth with 13%.
Rather than giving Ron Paul a serious chance of winning Iowa, the media is currently portraying Paul as a potential "spoiler". The Washington Examiner published an article this week with the headline, "Ron Paul could complicate GOP's two-horse race". Despite Paul currently polling second place in the most important primary state, many mainstream media news reports about the election have been mentioning Ron Paul's name before immediately saying, "who has no chance of winning the nomination."
History has shown that just like in a horse race, Presidential candidates who take a big lead early on almost never win the nomination. Those who think Romney will win the nomination also thought that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were going to be the two nominees four years ago. If history is right and Romney doesn't win the nomination, the winner will likely be either Gingrich or Paul.