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News Link • Politics: Republican Campaigns

Ron Paul Has Real Chance of Becoming GOP Nominee

• http://inflation.us
NIA believes that the free market is the number one predictor of the future. We pay a lot of attention to the web site Intrade.com which allows investors to place bets on current events by buying shares on the outcome. Right now on Intrade for the cost of $4.69 you can buy shares that Mitt Romney will become the Republican Presidential Nominee. If Romney is victorious, your shares will become worth $10 and you will more than double your money. If Romney doesn't win the nomination, your shares will become worthless and you will lose your entire investment.

With shares in Romney costing $4.69 it means Romney has a 46.9% chance of winning. Back on November 14th shares in Romney cost $7.15 meaning he had a 71.5% chance of winning. In the last three weeks, Romney has gone from being an overwhelming favorite to no longer having a majority of support.

Along with Romney collapsing, so has Cain who dropped out of the race. Cain had a 9.5% chance of winning on October 15th, but now has only a 0.1% chance of winning. Meanwhile, Rick Perry was exposed as being the phony candidate from Texas. Perry's support has collapsed from 39.4% on September 3rd to only 2.1% today.

With Romney, Cain, and Perry collapsing, where has all of their support gone? Newt Gingrich's chances of winning have increased from a low of 0.8% on September 27th to 33.3% today. Ron Paul's chances of winning have increased from a low of 2.2% on November 8th to 7.4% today. Jon Huntsman's chances of winning have increased from a low of 2.1% on November 7th to 7% today.

Iowa is the first GOP caucus and widely recognized as the first step in becoming the Republican nominee. Intrade doesn't allow you to buy shares for the Iowa caucus, so we can only look at polling. A new PPP poll for the Iowa caucus just released on December 5th shows Gingrich in the lead with 27%, Paul in second with 18%, Romney in third with 16%, and Bachmann in fourth with 13%.

Rather than giving Ron Paul a serious chance of winning Iowa, the media is currently portraying Paul as a potential "spoiler". The Washington Examiner published an article this week with the headline, "Ron Paul could complicate GOP's two-horse race". Despite Paul currently polling second place in the most important primary state, many mainstream media news reports about the election have been mentioning Ron Paul's name before immediately saying, "who has no chance of winning the nomination."

History has shown that just like in a horse race, Presidential candidates who take a big lead early on almost never win the nomination. Those who think Romney will win the nomination also thought that Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani were going to be the two nominees four years ago. If history is right and Romney doesn't win the nomination, the winner will likely be either Gingrich or Paul.
 

14 Comments in Response to

Comment by Ed Price
Entered on:

The baby in the picture is a REAL statesman/stateswoman. Why? He/she recognizes that it has to be done now, because Ron Paul won't be around by the time the country grows up.

Comment by Anonymous
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@Joseph Vanderville/aka JVdeVille:  (PHONY)  still pretending not to know how to spell my name, asshole?  Are you Shelton?  Renee?  Who are you really?  Tell us your real name.   We recognize BS.  And you aren't fooling anyone.  Go harass people on another page who care to hear your neocon (zionazi) propoganda.

 

Comment by Courtney Jalospanis
Entered on:

I am worried, Mr. Tan. There is not much to say. But I will be really really pissed off if I see in the ads Ron Paul giving my girlfriend or boyfriend a lips-to-lips for money. Even for charity, I swear not a single cent will come from me.

 
Comment by Venancio Tan
Entered on:

To raise more fund, Ron Paul ads are shifting. He is now kissing babies! What next is he going to kiss, I really don’t know. But I am sure Ufactdirt would say something funny when he or she reads this.

 
Comment by Joseph Vanderville
Entered on:

 'Ron Paul effect' has GOP worried – Powell Gammill. Wrong, and wrong again as usual! It makes a non-stop outpouring of sorrows worse. Kim Dryer is more worried and more agitated. Now you need a dump truck to clean up this space of flying debris from nowhere, as out of rage teardrops are falling down like a pouring rain.

Comment by Ducati Jeanne
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There is no reason to expect that this whole situation can be turned around in one or two election cycles. The Federal Reserve was established to get us into this situation. It took them 100 years to do it. It's going to take some time for the Country to get back to original principles.  It will be worth the effort, we must work to regain our freedom.

My watchwords must be "Let it not be said that we did nothing". 

 

Comment by Chip Saunders
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Even if Kim and Temper Bay are correct, that's no excuse to not go down swinging. In order to have a completely clear conscience when it all devolves to shooting,...we need to be able to say (truthfully) that we tried to make change peacefully. And that means following through on the Ron Paul opportunity, slim though it may be. 

Believe me,...I'm more than plenty primed to just begin laying waste upon the enemies that have done this to us. I actually have to fight the urge to do so. But it isn't time yet. Before we get to that trigger point, we have to go through the motions of actually demonstrating how the evil bastards will not allow us to peacefully change things. The Ron Paul thing is an essential and critical part of that. Let's see it through, regardless of the outcome.

 

Then, it's "game on".

 


Comment by Powell Gammill
Entered on:
'Ron Paul effect' has GOP worried

 http://www.newsleader.com/article/20111211/OPINION02/112110310/-Ron-Paul-effect-has-GOP-worried

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2011/12/11/former-gov-granholm-predicts-surge-for-ron-paul/

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ron-paul-spoiler/2011/12/08/gIQAVceCjO_story.html

Comment by Anonymous
Entered on:

Kim Dyer here (cont.) ... a biological virus that is... been off work for the third day now during high season.   Hope you all had a great time at Donna and Ernies' Christmas party!  Rich Woods is at 3333 Osborn (across from the hospital for his pseudo-physical therapy training/treatments).  I think he would really appreciate some visits and even to get out for a bit should it be permitted.  God bless you all and happy holidays!  xo  Kim 

Rich likes Uncle Sal's...  and I am sure he has concerns as anyone would what he will be doing for the holiday...   We love you Rich!  xo

Comment by Anonymous
Entered on:

@ducatijeanne:  Kim Dyer here:  I just know the reality.  Just like the guys before.  Believe me, I do believe in good, and I agree, ducatijeanne, I am with you, I want him in because it will only help, hopefully, but a good soul is more easily manipulated.  Unfortunately, I have my own part to play nursing a horrible virus from home from my computer.  I would have loved to be making signs with you all, but the frequenting gangstalkers/organized harassers of Breakfast club ensured I wouldn't feel comfortable participating.  (I have a restraining order against Renee Houlihan for harassment and gangstalking that I allege is tied to my exhusband's business associations tied to banksters and money-laundering racketeering, illicit drug trade/real estate fraud).  

 BTW, you are one very cool lady.  I remember meeting you in the bathroom when I was overheating in Quartsite, because you were one of the nobles who actually participated in the march!  xo   Kim

 


Comment by Temper Bay
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 On a Sunday?  I usually like to watch foul-mouthed little girls make signs.

Comment by Ducati Jeanne
Entered on:

For heaven's sake, who are you two? Don and Debbie Downer? 

I'm spending the day making signs WTF are you doing? 


Comment by Anonymous
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Yep, even if he wins, as you stated, we have to get rid of all the filth in office and replace with non-filth... AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN.  And the Ron Paul leaders, I am pretty sure know this.  It is almost like false hope the solution should lie elsewhere.

Comment by Temper Bay
Entered on:

IF Paul is elected President - AND - EVERY incumbant in both Houses is kicked out there might be a chance of giving America a few more decades of life.

Ain't gon'na happen though.


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