In my opinion, however, we could still see a rate policy transition earlier than many anticipate. Here are three reasons why.
Despite the disappointing August data, the labor market is improving. First, I wouldn't put too much weight on August's weak numbers. Summer is traditionally a weak period for hiring and August jobs report numbers are often revised higher.
In fact, 14 of the last 18 August payroll reports have been below expectations, while 12 of the last 14 August employment releases have ultimately been revised higher. Hence, I'm eagerly awaiting the normal revisions to this number. In the meantime, with prior 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month moving average nonfarm payroll gains of 207,000, 226,000 and 207,000, respectively, the current run-rate in job creation is still on par with that of past periods of economic expansion.