For a huge change we see the existing pattern of a strong establishment survey but a poor household survey has been replaced by weakness all around.

Last month I stated "The household survey varies more widely, and the tendency is for one to catch up to the other, over time. The question, as always, is which way?"

It is still difficult to say if this is the start of a new trend, but it could be.

Last month the household survey showed a gain in employment of a meager 96,000 and much of that was teen employment. This month the household survey came in at an anemic 34,000.

The labor force declined in each of the last two months. Those "not in the labor force" rose by a whopping 631,000 in the last two months.

Huge Miss on Expectations