
IPFS News Link • Federal Reserve
FOMC Minutes Guide: From China to September Rate-Liftoff Outlook
• by Steve Matthews and Matthew Boesler-- A signal from the discussion on whether or not there was a consensus among policy makers that September is the right time for the first interest-rate increase since 2006.
"I would hope to get an indication of how many people would be close to expecting a rate hike," said Roberto Perli, a partner at Cornerstone Macro LLC in Washington and a former senior Fed economist. "If you get a sentence like 'Many members felt that the time to raise rates was near' or something like that, that would be a very good indication."
Seventy-seven percent of forecasters in a Bloomberg survey taken Aug. 7-12 said the Fed will raise its main policy rate at the next FOMC meeting, on Sept. 16-17. Investors are less convinced, giving a 46 percent probability to a move next month, based on prices of interest-rate futures contracts.
The FOMC has used the minutes before to hint at the likely rate path. The minutes of the April 28-29 meeting, for example, said many participants saw a June rate hike as "unlikely," while a few favored a move that month.