But while the cartel's decisions over the past year looked pretty clear-cut, things aren't on such firm ground this time around.

"The interests of member countries have perhaps never been so far apart," writes Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. "While disagreements were evident at the June meeting, discontent with the pseudo-consensus appears more dire, with the low price environment further stressing the already highly stressed members of the cartel."

Notably, Libya, Iraq, Nigeria, Algeria, and Venezuela — the "fragile five," as Croft calls them — remain at very high risk, especially as Libya and Iraq are on the front lines of war.