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IPFS News Link • Economy - International

Waiting to Buy

• http://www.thedailybell.com

The sharp sell-off in the stock market has some of Wall Street's top strategists recommending to clients that they buy. "With the S&P 500 down 11.7% from its all-time high (2,130 in May 2015), investors are questioning whether a bear market is in the offing," RBC chief equity strategist Jonathan Golub said on Tuesday. "History shows that sell-offs of 20% or more rarely occur in the absence of a recession (1987 is the only occurrence in the past 50 years)." In other words, the sell-off could get worse should the US go into recession. But — and this is a big but — assuming there's no recession, this pullback should prove temporary in an otherwise ongoing bull market. – Business Insider

Dominant Social Theme: Choose your spots ... and buy!

Free-Market Analysis: So if the US is not headed back into a recession, this is a buying opportunity.

It's a pretty grim one, which supposedly makes it a good one. That's the perspective of Jonathan Golub who works for RBC. And recently the views of the RBC strategist hit the headlines for suggesting that clients sell their equity holdings across the board.

Golub may not be of that camp.

To be clear, Golub acknowledges that risks have increased out there. In fact, he was the first of his peers to cut his 2016 outlook for the market. But investing is all about price, and Golub thinks the stock market's correction has presented investors with an attractive price.

Golub believes that economic indicators support a continued "economic expansion," and he is not alone. Deutsche Bank's David Bianco describes the current bloodletting as, "a profit recession centered at certain industries."

Bianco explains there are profit recessions and broad recessions. During a profit recession not everything is going down. Golub has a similar perspective, bolstered, apparently, by history.

Golub provides numbers to support his thesis. After pullbacks in October 2014 and August 2015, "equities gained 11% over the next 2-3 months after the VIX rose to 26 and 41."


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