The great thing is that I do not have to do much other than stand in the middle of the room, have a drink in my hand, and wait. Generally, it doesn't take long to find out where we are within the current investment cycle as one of three things will happen;

The party this weekend was an example of the third stage. Wives were walking around with freshly injected lips and botoxed faces. Men were brandishing new Rolex watches while bragging about their latest acquisitions. I now know more about their personal stock portfolios than I do about their children's latest successes.

As I discussed yesterday, there is a suspended disbelief that currently exists in the markets. Yet as I stated:

"There is one important truth that is indisputable, irrefutable, and absolutely undeniable: 'mean reversions' are the only constant in the financial markets over time. The problem is the next 'mean reverting' event will remove most, if not all, of the gains investors have made over the last five years."