In the first quarter of 2017, models that supposedly had a margin of error of one percentage point had more than two percentages points difference.

The discrepancy between GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast is "only" one percentage point now, but my own personal assessment of second quarter GDP differs from GDPNow by at least 1.8 percentage points.

Since less than half of the economic reports for the second quarter are in, I have a pretty wide range of estimates.

See Mish Preliminary Estimate for Second Quarter GDP: 0.1% to 1.1 on June 16