We continue to get more indications that U.S. economic conditions are going to deteriorate rapidly during the second half of this year. Yesterday, I reported on a brand new survey which found that 69 percent of U.S. CFOs believe that a recession is coming "by the end of 2020", and today we learned that Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index has fallen dramatically. In fact, according to CNBC the sudden drop in the index was "the largest one-month decline on record"…
A reading of the economy from Morgan Stanley is signaling "June gloom."
Morgan Stanley's Business Conditions Index, which captures turning points in the economy, fell by 32 points in June, to a level of 13 from a level of 45 in May. This drop is the largest one-month decline on record and the lowest level since December 2008 during the financial crisis, according to the firm.
At this point, I really don't see how anyone can possibly claim that the U.S. economy is doing well. We also just learned that U.S. unemployment claims have now risen for three weeks in a row, and the trade war is clearly beginning to take an immense toll on the economy.