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IPFS News Link • Economy - Economics USA

Lowering Risk as We Enter Forced Frugality

• https://www.activistpost.com By Charles Hugh Smith

I would summarize the economic flow of recent events as:

2020-21: massive stimulus and pandemic restrictions build up household savings and generate a stock market "meme stock" bubble.

mid-2021-22: "Revenge Spending" splurging generates massive spike in consumption, profiteering and inflation.

2023: Renewed bubbles in housing and stocks, a classic "rebound / echo" bubble. Splurging wanes as savings and credit are tapped out, and higher interest rates finally start affecting behavior.

2024: Forced frugality as jobs are slashed, profits fall, inflation stays sticky, credit dries up, businesses close, Federal Reserve stimulus wanes and soaring government borrowing costs crimps government spending.

I've often discussed that the economy and society are cyclical. Nothing stays on the same trajectory forever.

History shows that when prices rise sharply, they rarely return to their previous levels as participants quickly habituate to the higher costs. Taxes, fees, rents, etc. rarely decline. Owners will keep prices high until they go broke rather than lower prices, as their own costs are also sticky.


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