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IPFS News Link • Federal Reserve

The Market Thinks the Fed Is Done Hiking Interest Rates, So Do I

•, By Mish

Yesterday, some analysts described the FOMC meeting as hawkish but that was not my interpretation. Analysis of futures positioning suggests the same thing.

Fed's Bias is Hold, Not Hike

At the FOMC press conference yesterday, Powell stated "The Fed is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all."

That seems hawkish, but the market perceived otherwise, and I concluded the same thing yesterday as well.

Look at the huge stock market jump and collapsing bond yields today as further evidence.

Hawkish Interest Rate Hold by the Fed?

Yesterday, I commented A Hawkish Interest Rate Hold by the Fed or Something Else?

Reporters kept trying to get the Fed to commit to more hikes or more cuts with a barrage of similar questions, but Powell ducked them with variations along the lines of significant tightening has taken place and we will wait and see.

Hold Bias, Not a Tightening Bias

I watched the entire press conference and do not see a tightening bias.

I see a stated hold bias.

The market interpreted Powell's repeated mentions of significant tightening already as a dovish statement.