Compilation of reports from NewSquawk (pdf format for pro subs), Deutsche Bank (pdf format for pro subs) Goldman Sachs (pdf format for pro subs), and JPMorgan (pdf 1 and pdf 2 for pro subs)

Presidential Race

• On Tuesday November 5th, Americans will go to the polls to vote in the Presidential Election with the winner taking office in January 2025 for a four-year term.

• Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris are locked in a very tight race, and while national polls have Harris slightly in front, betting markets are now mixed after a dramatic weekend before the election. Polls in swing states overall, show Trump leading by a thin margin. What is certain is how momentum has shifted towards the former President in recent weeks and months, albeit with a slight late shift back in favour towards Harris.

• In terms of averages, FiveThirtyEight's model assigns an 53% probability of a Trump win, and a 46% probability of Harris winning; pollster Nate Silver sees a 54% and 46% chance respectively. Republicans are clearly favoured to win the Senate, with FiveThirtyEight averages assigning a 90% probability, while the House is neck and neck, with Republicans seeing a 52% likelihood and Democrats 48%.

• On the night, the pivotal swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) will be viewed to see how the election is playing out, with Pennsylvania seen as the key state, as it is likely, but not impossible, that a candidate will not win the election without it. In the polls and in recent weeks (via 538 and Nate Silver) PA has flipped to Trump.

• For traders, focus will be on the Dollar, with a Trump win and a Republican sweep seen as the most bullish case for the Buck, with Commodity FX, the Yuan, and MXN amongst EMFX heavily weighed on. If Harris won, the Greenback is expected to be weaker, with commodity FX outperforming along with the EUR. Below we detail scenarios, and more nuanced trades.

• For reference, the Presidential nominee with the most electoral votes becomes the President of the US. The Electoral College is a process in which electors or representatives from each state in number proportional to the state's population cast their vote and determine who will be president. Each state gets a certain number of electors based on its representation in Congress, and there are a total of 538 electors, and the candidate who gets more than half (270) wins. As such, a candidate could win the popular vote but lose the election if they do not receive 270 EC votes.