For 2025, I see no other realistic option or scenario ahead other than a weaker dollar and rising gold.

This is not "selling my book," it's just a common-sense approach to the realities of history, debt markets and the signals of my often-repeated mantra that can't be repeated enough, namely: "The bond market is the thing."

Below, we see why.

To some, of course, the bond market is boring, but let's keep it simple, because if you understand government debt, you see things with an almost eerie clarity.

So, let's start with a brief, debt-based look back.

Looking Back
In my year-end report for 2023, we saw the coming events of 2024 fairly clearly.

This was not the result of genius or tarot cards, but just a blunt understanding of debt.

Predictable Rate Cuts

I said Powell would cut rates in 2024. He did precisely that. How did I know? Did Powell tell me so?

No, the bond market did.

Predictably Failed War on Inflation

Powell cut rates in 2024 because Uncle Sam (then at $34T in debt) would not and could not afford his failed yet admittedly dis-inflationary "higher for longer" rate policy to "beat" inflation—which I said he would never beat, and he never did.

Period.

Instead, Powell just took the CPI down in 2023 by gutting the middle class with a rate-hike-driven and hence demand-killing (dis-inflationary) recession that he then refused to call a recession.

Predictable Recession Forces

But I said the US would not be entering a recession in 2024, because it was ALREADY in a recession—and gave every proof of the same—from the blunt math of the Conference Board of Leading Indicators to the Oliver Anthony Indicator.

Predictable Bond Dumping

As for US government bonds, I said the world would dump rather than buy them, which is precisely what they've been doing all year—with its traditional best buyers (China and Japan) leading the way.

Again, was this psychic genius?

Hardly.

It was just accepting the fact that the rest of the world no longer loves a weaponized IOU from an indebted issuer of bonds with a finite duration yet infinite supply.