These are the October 9 estimates of GnS Economics for the timing of escalation in and around Ukraine:

Our current likelihoods for the timing of Peak Escalation in Europe are:

Before the U.S. Presidential elections (November 5): 30%;

After the elections, but before inauguration (January 20): 40%;

After the inauguration: 20%;

There will be no Peak Escalation: 10%.

Note that these reflect also the fact that we currently expect President Trump to win in November. The likelihood of #4 (no Peak Escalation) is so low, because we consider it requiring a wide-spread (global) peace movement, which is nowhere to be seen currently.