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News Link • Oil

Trump, New Chief of OPEC

• Without Reservation - Karen Kwiatkowski Substack

I'm determined that the United States will remain the strongest of all nations, but our power will never be used to initiate a threat to the security of any nation or to the rights of any human being. We seek to be and to remain secure—a nation at peace in a stable world. But to be secure we must face the world as it is.

Three basic developments have helped to shape our challenges: the steady growth and increased projection of Soviet military power beyond its own borders; the overwhelming dependence of the Western democracies on oil supplies from the Middle East; and the press of social and religious and economic and political change in the many nations of the developing world, exemplified by the revolution in Iran.

Each of these factors is important in its own right. Each interacts with the others. All must be faced together, squarely and courageously. We will face these challenges, and we will meet them with the best that is in us. And we will not fail.

Substitute Soviet for Russia and China, and Donald Trump probably posted the same thing on Truth Social 50 times last year, using ALL CAPS.

But energy markets adapted to the 1970s; today those sources are more widely distributed, and diversified. OPEC is less capable of doing its ordained mission for its members, but a new producer cartel is emerging. In 2019, the top five crude oil producers were the US (17mb/d), Russia (12 mb/d), Saudi Arabia (10 mb/d), Canada (6 mb/d) and Iraq (5 mb/d). 6 years laters, it's the US (21 mb/d), Saudi Arabia (11mb/d), Russia (almost 11 mb/d), Canada (5.6 mb/d), and China (5 mb/d). Iraq has dropped to 6th, with around 4.5 mb/d.

The cartel no longer OPEC, it is us. Trump also claims he effectively "owns" Canada. Our Saudi Arabian and UAE clients appear solidly dependent on Washington, and since 2003, Iraqi oil has been profiteered by the US, much as is envisioned for both Venezuela and the seducible sovereign movement in Alberta. Of the 2026 top six crude exporters, it's the Team USA versus Russia and China.


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