A Note From QTR

Coming into 2025, I was openly skeptical of Big Pharma's direction, which is why I included a short position on PPH (Invesco Pharmaceutical ETF) in my "25 Stocks to Watch for 2025" list. YTD the ETF is underperforming the SPY by about 3.5%.

My conviction stemmed from the belief that much of the sector's valuation was built not on true efficacy or transparency, but on regulatory capture, lobbying power, and narratives shaped more by marketing than data.

Over the past few years—especially in the wake of COVID—it became increasingly clear to me that anyone objectively analyzing the FDA and broader public health apparatus would see glaring gaps in oversight, transparency, and scientific rigor.

The pandemic cracked open a window into the inner workings of these institutions, revealing just how intertwined regulatory decisions and corporate interests had become.

That's why I was vocal years ago in considering a short position on Moderna. Since that date, Moderna is down -85.7% vs. the S&P rising about 63%. I get a lot of shit wrong, but that call was not one of them.

It was easy: the evidence simply didn't support the long-term safety and efficacy claims made about its mRNA vaccine, particularly as guidance shifted—now explicitly recommending against its use in pregnant women and children.