How Fast the Ramp Up?

Current output is around 800,000 to 1.1 million barrels per day (less than 1% of global supply), down sharply from peaks of over 3 million bpd in the past due to years of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions. With the recent political changes (Maduro's removal on January 3, 2026), President Trump has signaled strong U.S. involvement, including potential investments by American oil companies to rebuild infrastructure. However, experts across sources agree there's no quick ramp-up:

Short-term (2026) — Production might stay flat or even dip temporarily due to ongoing disruptions (e.g., export blockades and storage issues). Goldman Sachs forecasts it remaining around 900,000 bpd in 2026.

Medium-term (2–5 years) — Some optimistic estimates suggest a return to 1.5–2 million bpd could be possible in 2 years with stable governance and existing operators (like Chevron) scaling up. More realistic views point to meaningful increases taking 5–7 years as infrastructure is repaired.

Long-term (to higher levels like 2–3+ million bpd) — This could take a decade or more, requiring $100–110 billion in investments (per Rystad Energy and analysts like Francisco Monaldi).

The oil is mostly heavy crude from the Orinoco Belt, which is expensive and complex to extract/process, and the industry's infrastructure is severely decayed (pipelines unreplaced for decades). Political stability, legal reforms, and massive capital will be key factors.

In summary, significant new production won't flow quickly—think years to decades for a major boost, not months. If things stabilize smoothly, we could see gradual improvements starting in the next couple of years.

A Huge Challenge Awaits

The above answer is from Grok. The Wall Street Journal has a similar answer.

Please consider Trump Wants to Unlock Venezuela's Oil Reserves. A Huge Challenge Awaits.

"We're going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country," he said.