As we predicted following yesterday's disastrous New York Fed, we get the second confirmation that the economy is now contracting, courtesy of the Philly Fed, which just printed at negative 7.7 on expectations of 7.0%. This is the lowest number since July of 2009, and is the biggest three month collapse in the history of the series, plunging from 43.4 in March to -7.7 in June, or an over 50 point drop in three months. As expected, the Fed is telegraphing that the economy is collapsing and that stocks needs to plunge another 20% before Operation Twist (QE3) is given a green light. And make no mistake: the downside 3 month momentum in the series at -51.10 is the worst ever: all those buying stocks in advance of more easing are completely forgetting that they will take major losses before the market is low enough to allow actual easing to proceed.
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