ADP: Private Employment Decreases 10,000 in August

09-01-2010 • CalculatedRiskBlog.com & market-ticker.org/

The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for a decrease of 90,000 payroll jobs in August, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, with the loss of around 116,000 temporary Census 2010 jobs (+26,000 ex-Census). Service employment is estimated to have risen by 30,000, goods producing down 40,000. Manufacturing down 6,000. Large business employment was flat, medium and small decreased by 5,000 and 6,000, respectively. Construction employment was down 33,000 - there's no joy there. Anyone looking for construction to "lead us out" is out of their frapping minds, as I've repeatedly asserted - yet we keep focusing policies on construction through the housing sector. THIS IS A LOST CAUSE FOLKS - oversupply will make certain of it no matter what else you do. Given that the government was firing more Census workers this last month, I expect the Friday report to be solidly negative, and I would not be surprised to see a 0.2 or even 0.3 increase in the official U-3 reported unemployment rate.